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Model Report Card

How the NBA model is really doing, measured on live games. Nothing changes in the model until these numbers say so, and every number shows how many games it's based on. Owner only.

How to Read This

Won %: real FIREs, graded.

Backtest %: the same rule on past seasons.

Naive %: the plain bet on every game, no checks. Edge = Won % minus Naive %, what the checks add.

Units at the saved prices decide Keep / Tighten / Drop in the Monthly Review. Under 15 graded = Small Sample, no changes.

Plan: judge after about 200 FIREs (around mid-December). One change at a time, tested on past games first, written in sports.md. Monthly review on the 1st.